作者归档:polo

比特币为何没能在大学中发明出来

原文链接:https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-could-never-be-invented-in-a-university

作者Korok Ray,是德州农工大学梅斯商学院副教授兼梅斯创新研究中心主任。

大意就是当前大学和学院的学术研究主要集中在某一学科的增量中,很难得到一个跨学科的创新,而比特币正是密码学、货币/经济学、网络科学的交叉成就。后面就给了大学发展的一些建议。

Since the announcement of its inception in October 2008, Bitcoin has reached a market capitalization of over $1 trillion. Its growth has drawn both retail and institutional investment, as the financial community now begins to see it as a legitimate store of value and an alternative to traditional assets like gold. Innovations in second-layer settlements like the Lightning Network make it increasingly possible for bitcoin to serve as a medium of exchange.

Yet, Bitcoin has a precarious and somewhat checkered history in academia. Curricula in universities are largely devoid of any mention of Bitcoin. Instead, the teachings are often left to student clubs and nonprofits. Over time this may change, as Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market continues to grow, attracting attention from top talent in both engineering and business. Bitcoin’s absence from university is not a problem with Bitcoin itself, but rather the academy, with its insufficient embrace of innovation, its emphasis on backward-looking data analysis and its excessive preoccupation with individual disciplines rather than collective knowledge. Bitcoin can serve as an inspiration for what academic research can and should be. In fact, it presents a roadmap to change higher education for the better.

Similarities With The Academy

One may wonder why anyone should even assume a relationship between Bitcoin and universities. Technologists are in constant contact with real needs of customers today, while faculty develop basic science that (may) have application far into the future. After all, innovations like Facebook, Microsoft, Apple and even Ethereum were launched by young men who didn’t graduate from college. Yet, it’s no accident Silicon Valley and Route 128 both emerged in proximity to our nation’s greatest coastal universities. So, there’s certainly a correlation between universities and the tech sector. Even so, Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin has an even tighter relationship with its intellectual and academic roots. To understand this, we must peer into Bitcoin’s history.

At the turn of the century, a ragtag band of cryptographers, computer scientists, economists and libertarians — the cypherpunks — exchanged messages over an internet mailing list. This was an obscure electronic gathering of a diverse cadre of scientists, technologists and hobbyists who were developing and sharing ideas of advancements in cryptography and computer science. Here’s where some of the early giants of applied cryptography spent time, like Hal Finney, one of the early pioneers of Pretty Good Privacy (PGP).

It was on this mailing list that the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, announced his solution for an electronic payment system. After that announcement, he began to field questions from the forum on both the concept and its execution. Shortly thereafter, Nakamoto provided the full implementation of Bitcoin. This allowed participants of the forum to download the software, run it and test it on their own.

The Bitcoin white paper bears similarity to academic research. It follows the structure of an academic paper, has citations and looks similar to what any paper in computer science may look like today. Both the white paper and the conversations around it reference prior attempts at implementing the proof-of-work algorithm, one of the core features of Bitcoin. For example, the white paper cites HashCash from 2002, also part of the corpus of knowledge that preceded Bitcoin. Adam Back came up with proof-of-work for HashCash while trying to solve the problem of eliminating spam in emails.

Thus, Bitcoin didn’t fall out of the sky, but emerged out of a long lineage of ideas developed over decades, not days or weeks. We tend to think of technology as operating at warp speed, changing rapidly and being driven by ambitious, young college dropouts, but Bitcoin wasn’t based on “move fast and break things.” It was and is the opposite: a slow, careful deliberation based on decades of real science practiced not by kids, but more like their parents. The cryptography forum was similar in nature to an academic research seminar, where professional scientists politely but insistently attempt to tear down ideas to arrive at the truth. Though the concept of a white paper is now all the rage among alternative cryptocurrency coins and tokens, it’s the hallmark method of communicating ideas among the professional research community.

Even though the cryptocurrency economy today occupies center stage in the financial press and a growing share of national attention, when it emerged Bitcoin was as far from this as possible. It was obscure, technical and very fringe. In its long gestation from ideas that had been around for decades but unknown except to a small circle of cryptographers, economists and political philosophers, Bitcoin shares more in common with other radical innovations, like the internet, the transistor and the airplane. Just like those innovations, the story of Bitcoin is the triumph of individual reason over collective misperception. Just as the Wright brothers proved the world wrong by showing man could fly even though physicists claimed it was mathematically impossible, so too did Bitcoin confound the naysayers by building digital scarcity for the first time ever.

Why should we focus on Bitcoin rather than some of the other cryptocurrency tokens, like Ethereum? If you look under the hood, the majority of the innovation of cryptocurrency came from Bitcoin. For example, Ethereum relies on the same elliptic curve as Bitcoin, utilizing the same public key cryptography. Bitcoin emerged over a long gestation period and secret development by a pseudonymous applied cryptographer and was released and debated in an obscure mailing list. For this reason, Bitcoin shares many similarities to the arcane academic circles that occupy modern universities. No professional cryptographer made Ethereum; rather, it was a teenager who even admits he rushed its development. Thus, it’s only Bitcoin that has deep connection to the academy, whereas the more incremental innovations crowding the cryptocurrency space now are more similar to the small advances taken in the modern technology sector.

Differences From The Academy

Bitcoin differs from the academy in important ways. Most significantly, Bitcoin is fundamentally interdisciplinary in a way universities today aren’t. Bitcoin fuses together three separate disciplines: mathematics, computer science and economics. It’s this fusion that gives Bitcoin its power and shatters traditional academic silos.

Public key cryptography has been the major innovation in applied cryptography and mathematics since its conception 50 years ago. The core concept is simple: Users can secure a message with a private key known only to themselves that generates a public key known to all. Therefore, the user can easily distribute the public key without any security consequence, as only the private key can unlock the encryption. Public key cryptography achieves this through hash functions — one-way transformations of data that are impossible to reverse. In Bitcoin, this occurs through elliptic curves over finite fields of prime order.

But public key cryptography isn’t enough. Because Bitcoin seeks to serve as an electronic payment system, it must solve the double-spending problem. If Alice pays Bob using bitcoin, we must prevent Alice from also paying Carol with that same bitcoin. But in the digital world, copying data is free and therefore, preventing double spending is seemingly hopeless. For this, Nakamoto utilized the blockchain, a construct from computer science. Cryptographer David Chaum laid the groundwork for the concept of a blockchain as early as 1983, in research that emerged from his computer science dissertation at Berkeley.

The blockchain is a linked list that points backwards to the original (genesis) block. Each block contains thousands of transactions, each transaction containing the ingredients for transferring bitcoin from one address to another. The blockchain solves the double-spending problem because it’s distributed, i.e., publicly available to all nodes on the Bitcoin network. These nodes constantly validate the blockchain with new transactions added only when all other nodes on the network agree (consensus). In our prior example, when Alice pays Bob, this transaction enters the blockchain, which all nodes observe. If Alice tries to use those same bitcoin to pay Carol, the network will reject that transaction since everyone knows that Alice has already used those bitcoin to pay Bob. It’s the distributed, public nature of the blockchain that prevents double spending, a problem unique to electronic payments.

Indeed, Satoshi designed the blockchain specifically as a solution to double spending. It’s inherently inefficient, as it requires the entire network to constantly validate and reproduce the same data. This is also why most applications of blockchain technology outside of Bitcoin make little sense, as it forces an inefficient solution custom-built for electronic payments onto other applications that would be efficiently solved with central databases. The notion of a blockchain as a reverse-linked list by itself is not revolutionary in computer science, but its distributed nature specifically designed to prevent double spending is.

Even so, cryptography and blockchain aren’t enough. There needs to be a reason for the network to secure the blockchain. This is where the economics of Bitcoin shine. Nakamoto proposed a group of computers that would prove that the history of transactions did in fact occur. This proof requires costly work to be done. Nakamoto solved this by setting up a tournament in which individual computers (called miners) would compete to find a seemingly random answer through a one-way function called SHA256. The winner would receive newly minted bitcoin, which the network would release. The answer to the function must be sufficiently challenging that the only way to solve it is to deploy more computational resources. Bitcoin mining requires real computation and therefore real energy, similar to gold mining a few generations ago. But unlike gold mining, the issuance schedule of new bitcoin is known by everyone.

The economics of mining is the design of a contest that rewards new bitcoin to miners that solve a puzzle. This is a form of a microeconomics mechanism, i.e., a game economy design where individual agents compete for a reward. The macroeconomics of Bitcoin pertains to the issuance schedule, which adjusts predictably over time, with the block reward reducing by half every four years. This forces the constraint of 21 million bitcoin. This inherently limits the inflationary growth of the currency and imposes a constraint no fiat currency today must adhere to. The difficulty of the underlying puzzle adjusts roughly every two weeks regardless of the computing power of the network, providing a robust implementation despite exponential advances in computing power in the decades since Bitcoin launched.

This interdisciplinary feature of Bitcoin is existential, not incremental. Without any of its three components (public key cryptography, a backward-linked blockchain and a mining contest using proof-of-work), Bitcoin would not function. By itself, each of the three components consisted of a coherent body of knowledge and ideas. It was their combination that was Nakamoto’s genius. So too will future radical innovations need to link together multiple disciplines in existential ways, without which their combination would not survive.

Why Not The Academy?

Why could Bitcoin not have emerged out of the academy? First, Bitcoin is inherently interdisciplinary, yet scholars at universities are rewarded for excellence in single domains of knowledge. Bitcoin fuses together ideas from computer science, mathematics and economics, yet it is unlikely any single university faculty would have the breadth of knowledge necessary for interdisciplinary consilience.

Second, the academy suffers from incrementalism. Academic journals explicitly ask their authors for the incremental contribution their work provides to the literature. This is how knowledge advances, inch by inch. But Bitcoin — like other radical innovations in history, such as the airplane and the transistor — made giant leaps forward that would likely not have survived the peer review process of the academy.

Third, Bitcoin rests on libertarian political foundations which are out of favor among the mainstream academy, especially professional economists. Baked into the software are algorithmic representations of sound money, where the Bitcoin protocol releases new bitcoin on a predictable schedule. This is very different from the world we live in today, where the Federal Open Market Committee has full discretionary authority on the money supply. The cypherpunks who vetted Bitcoin v0.1 shared a skepticism of collective authority, believing technology and cryptography can provide privacy to individuals out of the watchful eyes of the government or any large organization.

Most economists don’t share this skepticism towards central authority. At least the social science community never took Bitcoin seriously. Besides, the Federal Reserve has an outsize role in both funding and promoting mainstream academic economic research. It recruits from top Ph.D. programs, hires bank presidents and governors who were former professors of economics, and encourages its staff to publish in the same academic journals as the academy. It is no wonder the university of faculty, influenced by the culture of the Fed, would not embrace technology that radically replaces it.

I asked all living Nobel laureates of economics to speak at the Texas A&M Bitcoin Conference, and all but one declined. Some admitted to not knowing enough about Bitcoin to warrant a lecture; at least they were honest about the constraints of the disciplinary model that they’ve so successfully thrived in. Others, like Paul Krugman, view cryptocurrencies as the new subprime mortgage (he also once predicted that the internet would have the same impact on the economy as the fax machine). Academic economists dedicated almost no attention to Bitcoin’s rise and even now remain ignorant of how the Bitcoin blockchain works, despite being the only real innovation in finance this last decade.

Bitcoin is first and foremost an intellectual contribution. It doesn’t require a deep knowledge of industry, special insight into the current practices of firms or knowledge of idiosyncratic details of the labor and capital markets. It didn’t build from existing practice, but rather from existing theory. For these reasons, Bitcoin emerged unapologetically out of the land of ideas, and should, in some sense, have come from the academy. An academic economist could’ve possibly designed the mining tournament, a computer scientist developed the blockchain and a mathematician developed public key cryptography. It takes an unlikely fellow (or team) to combine these three innovations together. Universities develop faculties with deep expertise in their individual disciplines but do nothing to tie the disciplines together in the way Bitcoin does. For this reason, Bitcoin couldn’t have emerged out of the university, even though it rests on disciplines well established within the university. The problem isn’t the knowledge itself but its organization. And therein lies the opportunity.

How Did We Get Here?

In its current form, the academy is not suited for innovations like Bitcoin. After students enter graduate school, they learn the techniques of their own discipline, which they use to publish in specialized journals that earn them tenure and future academic recognition with a small set of peers within that discipline. These isolated corridors of knowledge have ossified over centuries ever since the early universities. How did this happen?

There are two primary trends in the academy since World War II. By far the most important is the digital revolution. As computing power became accessible to anyone, the objective of science shifted from building theory to measurement. Suddenly, a wide array of social and natural science data was available to researchers from a laptop anywhere in the world. The growth of the internet spread data sharing and data availability, and advances in microprocessing power made large analysis of data cheap and easy. The academic community shifted en masse to data analysis and moved from trend to trend on 10-15 year cycles. The first cycle was on summary statistics and variance analysis, the second was on linear regression and the third on machine learning. When problems arose in the specific domain of each discipline, rarely did scholars return to their underlying theory for revision. Instead, they simply fed more data into the machine, hoping measurement error and omitted variables were to blame.

The growth of big data and statistics, in concert with machine learning, has led us to the present where artificial intelligence (AI) is a black box. No researcher can fully explain what exactly AI is doing. At the same time, questions have become smaller. Before, development economics as a field would ask, “Why is Africa so poor?” Now, research in the field asks whether placing a sign on the left or the right side of a bathroom door is more likely to lead to usage. This preoccupation with causality is intellectually worthwhile but comes at a high price, as often the researcher must narrow his domain to behaviors that are easily observable and measurable. The large, complex and mathematical theories developed after World War II were largely untestable, and so empirical researchers abandoned those theoretical foundations. Where once academics held the intellectual high ground by asking the biggest questions of the day, now empirical research dominates academic journals. Experimental physicists and empirical economists alike mostly cite other data-driven work.

As computers filtered throughout our society, students had exposure to computation earlier in their lives. By the time they arrived in college and in graduate school, they already had basic facilities with data manipulation and analysis. Why bother with mathematics when some simple experiments and linear regressions can provide tables of results that can be quickly published? Over time, students gravitated towards data work as the academic profession slowly migrated away from math.

It became far easier for journals to accept papers with some small experimental or empirical fact about the world. Given that editors and referees make decisions on academic research on a paper-by-paper basis, there’s no overarching evaluation of whether the body of empirical and experimental work truly advances human knowledge. As such, data analysis has run amuck with teams of researchers making ever more incremental advances, mining the same core data sets, and asking smaller and more meaningless questions. Does rain or sunshine affect the mood of traders and therefore their stock picks? Can the size of a CFO’s signature on an annual statement measure his narcissism and predict if he will commit fraud? (I’m not making this stuff up.)

One might think that advances in computation would have led research to verify some of the theories developed after World War II, but that has not been the case. In technical terms, many of those complex models are endogenous, with multiple variables determined in equilibrium simultaneously. As such, it’s a challenge for empirical researchers to identify specifically what’s happening, such as whether increasing the minimum wage will increase unemployment, as Economics 101 suggests. That has led to a turn to causality. But causal inference requires precise conditions, and often those conditions do not hold over the economy but rather in a few specific examples, like U.S. states that adopted anti-abortion laws at different times. The Freakonomics revolution in economics may not dominate the Nobel Prizes, but certainly has influenced the majority of published social science research.

The chief problem with this data-driven approach is its ultimately backward-looking approach. By definition, data is a representation of the world at a point in time. The entire fields of business and economics research are now almost wholly empirical, where scholars race to either gather new datasets or use novel and empirical techniques on existing datasets. Either way, the view is always from the rearview mirror, looking back into the past to understand what did or didn’t happen. Did low interest rates cause the Global Financial Crisis? Do abortions reduce crime? Does the minimum wage reduce employment? These questions are fundamentally preoccupied with the past, rather than designing new solutions for the future.

The second trend has been the shrinking of the theory community, both inside and outside the academy. The number of theorists has vastly shrunk, and they also have refused to collaborate with their much larger empirical and experimental colleagues. This tribalism led theorists to write ever more complex, intricate and self-referential mathematical models with little basis in reality and no hope for possible empirical validation. Much of game theory remains untestable, and string theory is perhaps the most extreme example of a self-referential world that can never be fully verified or tested.

Finally, academic theory trails technology by a long time. Often, mathematicians, physicists and economists provide ex-post rationalizations of technologies that have already been successful in industry. These theories don’t predict anything new, but rather simply affirm conventional wisdom. As the complexity of theory grows, its readership falls, even among theorists. Just like everything else in life, the tribalism of theory leads the community to act as a club, barring members who don’t adopt its arcane language and methods.

Thus, we’ve arrived at something of a civil war; the theory tribe is shrinking year by year and losing relevance to reality, while the empirical/experimental data community grows over time, asking smaller questions with no conceptual guidance. Both academics and technologists are left in the dark about what problems to solve and how to approach them. It also leads to a pervasive randomness in our collective consciousness, leading us to blow in whatever direction the winds of the moment take us. Economics has well-established theories of markets and how they function, yet technology companies are massive marketplaces unmoored in much of that same economic theory. Computer science rests on a sturdy foundation of algorithms and data structures, yet the theory community is obsessed with debates on computational complexity, while trillion-dollar tech companies perform simple A/B tests to make their most significant decisions.

We’ve reached a tipping point in the scale of human knowledge, where scholars refine their theories to ever more precise levels, speaking to smaller and smaller communities of scholars. This specialization of knowledge has led to hyperspecialization, where journals and academic disciplines continue to divide and subdivide into ever smaller categories. The profusion of journals is evidence of this hyperspecialization.

From Science To Engineering

Much future innovation will occur at the boundaries of the disciplines, given that much knowledge has already been discovered within existing disciplines, but there must be a greater transformation. Universities today still largely adopt the scientific method, establishing knowledge for its own sake and seeking to know the natural, physical and social world, but we shouldn’t stop there. Given their fundamental knowledge, scientists are in the best position to engineer better solutions for our future. Moving to an engineering mindset will force academics to design and implement solutions to our most pressing problems. In the long term, it will also close the gap between the academy and industry. The pressure students face to search for jobs and start companies, which takes a toll on their academic coursework, emerges because there’s a gap between the needs of the market and the academic curriculum. Were this gap to close, and students instead spent time in college building better solutions for the future, this cognitive dissonance would dissipate.

This transformation has already begun in some disciplines, like economics. One of the most successful applied areas of economics is market design, which unambiguously adopted an engineering mindset and delivered three Nobel Prizes in the last decade alone. These scholars came from engineering and adapted game theory to build better markets that can work in the real world, such as better ways to match kidney donors to recipients, students to schools or medical residents to hospitals. They also designed many of the largest auctions in use today, such as the spectrum auction of the government and the ad auction within Google. There’s no reason the rest of the economics profession, or even the rest of higher education and the academic community, cannot similarly position themselves towards adopting more of this engineering mindset.

Over time, closing this gap between the academy and industry will relieve much of the  
public outcry against escalating tuition and student debt. Once students and professors orient their research to develop better solutions for society, so too will their students and the companies that employ them. Students will no longer resent their faculty for spending time on research rather than teaching if that research directly creates technologies that ultimately benefit the students, future employers and society at large. Over time, this naturally will close the skills gap that America currently faces. Universities no longer will need to focus on STEM skills explicitly, but rather focus on providing technological solutions that will ultimately draw heavily from the STEM areas anyway.

A Call To Action

How can we reform higher education to produce the next Bitcoin? Of course, the next Bitcoin won’t be Bitcoin per se, but rather a first-principled innovation that conceives of an old problem in an entirely new way. I have three specific recommendations for university culture, priorities and organizational structure.

First, the academy must more explicitly embrace engineering more than science — even on the margin. The Renaissance and the Age of Reason have led American higher education to celebrate science and knowledge for its own sake. The motto for Harvard is “Veritas,” or “truth,” while that of the University of Chicago is “Crescat scientia, vita excolatur,” meaning “Let knowledge grow from more to more, and so human life be enriched.” These universities, based on the scientific and liberal arts traditions, have done much to establish the corpus of knowledge necessary for human progress, but this last half-century has been the age of the engineering universities, with Stanford and MIT competing to build solutions for the world, not just to understand it. This ethos of engineering should extend beyond engineering departments, but even and especially, to social science. For example, require all freshmen to take a basic engineering class to learn the mental framework of building solutions to problems. Economists have articulated the benefits of sound money for generations, but only through an engineered system like Bitcoin can those debates become reality.

This shift in engineering is happening somewhat within the social sciences. For example, the recent Nobel Prizes given to Paul Milgrom and Bob Wilson in economics celebrated their work in designing new markets and auctions to solve real problems in resource allocation problems that governments and society face. This community of microeconomic theorists are still a small minority within the economic profession, yet their work blends theory and practice like no other field and should have higher representation among practicing scholars. Universities should abandon the forced equity in treating all disciplines as equal, allocating an even share of faculty lines and research dollars to every discipline, no matter its impact on society. Instead, prioritize disciples willing and able to build solutions for the future. This culture must come from the top and permeate down towards recruiting decisions of faculty and students.

Second, reward interdisciplinary work. The traditional, centuries-old model of deep disciplinary work is showing its age, while most of the exciting innovations of our time lie at the boundaries of the disciplines. Universities pay lip service to interdisciplinary work as a new buzzword across college campuses, but unless the incentives for faculty change, nothing will. Promotion and tenure committees must reward publications outside of a scholar’s home discipline and especially collaborations with other departments and colleges. While large government agencies, like the National Science Foundation, have increased allocation of funding toward cross-disciplinary teams, when it comes times to promotion and tenure decisions, faculty committees are woefully old-fashioned and still reward scholars within rather than across disciplines. Over time, I expect this to change as the older generation retires, but the most pressing problems of society cannot wait and universities should pivot faster now. Unless promotion and tenure committees explicitly announce recognition for interdisciplinary work, nothing else matters.

Third, the academy must aim high. Too often, academic journals are comfortable seeking incremental contributions to the fund of knowledge. Our obsession with citations and small improvements inevitably leads to small steps forward. Academic communities have a reflexive desire to be self-referential and tribal. Therefore, scholars like small conferences of like-minded peers. Some of the biggest steps forward in the history of science came from giant leaps of understanding that only could have occurred outside of the mainstream. Bitcoin is one example, but not the only one. Consider the discovery of the double helix, the invention of the airplane, the creation of the internet and more recently the discovery of the mRNA sequence for the COVID-19 vaccine. True progress comes from unapologetically tossing out the existing intellectual orthodoxy and embracing an entirely fresh look. The standards of excellence for our faculty and students must insist they aim to solve the biggest problems facing humanity. Too often this discourse is silenced from campus, and over time, it erodes the spirit of our young people. To achieve this, allocate research funding based on impact and make these requirements strict.

The vast increase in wealth from the technology sector has put various pressures on campus. For one, it induces young students to drop out and start new companies, following in the footsteps of the young founders who dominate the technological and financial press. This happens only because there’s a rift between the rewards of the market and the activities of the university. Remember that Bitcoin emerged from a small community of intellectuals seeking to engineer a solution to an ancient problem using new technology. This could’ve easily occurred within the academy, and in some sense, it should have.

The corporate firm, either start-up or established, is the natural locus for incremental innovation. The constant noise of customer needs, investor demands and industry knowledge make it a natural place for small changes in society’s production possibilities. Radical innovation is uniquely suited to the academy with its longer, more deliberate timescale, access to deep science and isolation from the noise of the market, but it’s up to the academy to rise to that challenge. Let Bitcoin inspire us, so the academy becomes the quarterback and not just the spectator to the next radical innovation of our time.

元宇宙的道路迂回

看到一篇批判元宇宙的文章,metaverse == metaworse?

对元宇宙的质疑来源于,为了让人群更容易理解和使用元宇宙,使用了过度的拟物化,比如元宇宙银行,就真的搞个虚拟网点,虚拟客户经理,虚拟窗口,问题是只是方便了理解,容易学习,但却阻碍了真正的进化。

过度拟物化也带来元宇宙的能耗虚高。

想起一个例子,新生代对保存/Save的图标的理解就是一个方方的的形状,不知所起。因为软盘在90年代末期就开始消失了……当时windows软件的设计为了让80年代的使用者理解文件被保存下来,使用了保存到软盘的概念来指代Save,然后就是陈陈相因,直到今天。

元宇宙的几个支撑成功的关键点:

有内容创作者——这个跟WEB 2.0是一样的,只是3.0里面是去中心的,创作者完全拥有作品的所有权。

完善的数据经济——作品归属后可以自由交易,其他非展现型的数据也是一样。

加密货币——这是支撑去中心化的基础。

继续阅读

夜班经理

用睡前时间看完了,开头很难啃下去,慢慢看出些意思,不过剧情波动或者起伏并不算大,也许是谍战片看多了的缘故,换到真实世界中其实派因乔纳森多次更换身份并洗黑自己以进入大boss身边,这种剧情反而并不算很惊讶。

看了一下作者的作品清单,就是一个专职写间谍小说的。

网上的评价多数是对英剧夜班经理的评价,考虑到英剧的复原度,应该是差不多的吧。(除了加入演员的加减分评价)

夜航船

看了上半部,就是一本私人收集的文史小片段的集合。

真正的算是笔记的书籍,翻翻就可以的,也不用真当成是必不可少的文史知识。

跟书名来历一样,供闲聊用的,只是今日,也并不算适合闲聊了,因为互联网带来的八卦遍地。

虎门文史

终于把第五辑也看完了。这一辑收录的回忆文章比较晚,00~09/11年间写的吧,回忆的年份是60~80年代。

好倒是没什么不好,但我的家庭背景决定了我从小听的大人的经历,跟主旋律并不一致,父母都是可教育好子女,所以属于没机会做这个,也没有机会做那个的那个群体。书中所回忆的事情,对于我们来说,或者延伸开去,仍然是不可触及的那个时代的上流。

比如上报纸、广播、被领导接见,这类事情哪有我们什么份。

另外,甚少白沙人参与到文史的故事的主角中来,我不由得怀疑,是不是白沙在那个年代太平、虎门的叙事里面,属于比较边缘化的。一直到80年代中后期,这情况才有改善?

白沙可是最早建成村办自来水厂、村办电视网络的村,当然了,这是80年代末90年代初才有的故事,主角则是白沙在香港的乡亲了。

后来就是富豪榜的白沙人。

文史的文章文笔是相当好的,就是融不进去,总体来说在承认经济落后的同时还是偏正能量,只是偶有说到某文章的主角最后逃港的事情。

互联网的记忆

我记得大约在01~03年的时候,流行着一个某外企面试题。其大意是在村子里每人都养了一条狗,人人都看得出别人的狗是否有病,但是却看不出自己的狗是否有病。如果他知道自己的狗有病,就会开枪杀死它。

一个异乡人来到村子,离开之前留下了一句话,有些狗有病。

第一天没有枪响,第二天也没有枪响,第三天枪响了,请问有几只病狗被射杀了?

后来陶哲轩把同类的问题发布到主页上,“Blue eyes puzzle”,https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/the-blue-eyed-islanders-puzzle/

设定得更合理一些,毕竟没有人看得见自己的眼睛。

但我想说的是,在01~03年,我曾经在某个课/讲座上,听说的是,这个问题的真实原型是:亚洲金融风暴前的两三年的东南亚。

94年开始,有经济学家(异乡人)警告过东南亚的经济(狗)繁荣存在着风险(病),每个国家的人民都看不见自己国家的问题,但是却看得到别国的麻烦(比如进出口等数据)。

于是风险面越大(病狗越多),危机爆发的时机就越往后(枪响时间N天后,N=病狗数量)。

我当时一下子就明白了为什么会有人发明这样的面试题。

然而,在几年后,互联网上一直搜不到关于这个题目和亚洲金融风暴的对应关系。今天再搜,是Terry Tao的网页更广为人知,题目的原始出处早已湮灭在不稳定的互联网记忆之中了。

中考

我是95年中考,由于初二上学期末处于学校人身安全原因转校回了白沙继续读,一度觉得中考考上莞中的可能性变低了。

94年我哥高考,成绩是东莞理科第四,740多的标准分。无论如何,我还是需要以莞中为目标而努力的。

然而环境整体来说,同学中的大半人是不考虑读高中,能上虎门的威远职业高中就满意了。于是学习的风气可想而知。

于是生活分裂成两部分,在学校社交维持着颇宽松的状态,而回家则利用有限的时间,以及假期,自我训练。

考前几个月算下分数,应该也是可以超过莞中分数线10~20分吧,然而经历过转校的风波,我对未来是充满危机感。

不利的情况也是有的,体育三个小项,除了立定跳之外,实心球和50米的成绩都不敢恭维。政治课的老师,讲题目也是难以让人信服,我也不知道真正考起来会比各种重点中学的差多少。

唯一依仗的还是数理化,虽然白沙中学是村办中学,但是招的数理化老师,水平一点都不差,这得益于东莞的经济水平怎么说都是全国前列,虽然老师们来了面对村里顽童们无可奈何,但看在工资的份上,还是愿意任教。

体育在文化课之前考,拉到则徐中学去,我立定跳跳了2.6米,应该是接近满分,然而实心球和50米,一个不及格,一个勉强及格,最后拉下来,成绩也就及格的状态,50分满分的体育,只拿了30分。一下就让了别人近20分了,心情不是太好,但也没办法了。

中考考场在虎门中学,家里给了点钱,中午就跟同学在那个冒牌了8年的麦当莱吃的。在白沙读书的时候,习惯穿着拖鞋上课(校长老师大多数穿拖鞋),我们考试也是穿着拖鞋去的,想起来也算是一景了。

同学们一等到监考老师不在,就看成绩好的同学的卷面,我也没办法,只求少影响我一点吧,毕竟加上小学,是多年的同学,不好脸上过不去什么的。

考完中考,等成绩是很没意思的事情,我哥从中大回来,带我到他学校去住了一个星期,感受一下大学校园生活,也去广州走了一下亲戚。

回来不久后就出了成绩。政治87~88/100,又是让了10分,语文10x/120,中规中矩,英语9x/100,物理化学都是9x/100,最好的是数学119.5/120。另外初二上拿的华杯奖励再加10分。不算加分也拿了虎门镇的第一。也是村办中学最好的一次个人成绩以及第一个莞中。(我哥是在镇上的中学考的莞中)

后来到了莞中,从别的渠道听说的,我数学的成绩是全市最高的(加上高考,制霸两次^_^),那0.5分是故意找理由扣的,似乎是不希望出现一个满分(在村办中学的考生中)。

中考对我人生的磨炼远高于高考。记得刚从镇办中学回到家里,我妈还没帮我办好转校手续,我呆在家里,那时候是冬天,家里没人,我躺在冰冷的瓷砖地板上,看着天花板,只想到的是为何会有不如意,总是要变化,心中曾经念想,又有多少变灰。后来又陆续听到一些闲话,以前学校的老师基本上不看好我的转校。对我来说,真的有借中考来自我证明的强烈欲望。不过也难怪他们会这么说,因为我在原学校参加镇里的学科竞赛,每门都是一等奖,等我回到白沙,也参加了一次,已经变成二等奖了。

往事如烟,去年和村里的同学聚餐,他们一辈子大多数时间都在东莞或者虎门或者只在白沙附近,有些事情确实很难再聊到一起,于是只能讲回初中那时候的荒唐事。

发达国家没有super app的原因

主要是因为美国和欧洲,iPhone和标准Android(GMS)的联合覆盖率非常高,以至于形成了双头垄断(duopoly)。

双头垄断下,Apple和Google自身就可以成为Super App,在手机OS之上的各类软件,其横向生长的空间并不大。

虽然Meta(facebook),Twitter都很强,但要脱离Apple和Google提供的内置服务,反而是阻力重重,比如支付,很难独立于Apple Pay和Google Pay存在吧,就好像不大可能脱离Visa和MasterCard一样。

银河英雄传说

终于看完了。

记得00年那个暑假并没有回家,在学校过的,上酒井BBS比较多,SF版我就贴银英传,不过贴着贴着好无聊,就搁那里了,自己也一直没有往下看下去。

到07年,纸质书出了,当时就买了黎明篇,没有买整套,主要是因为比较多,也是租房,搬来搬去不方便。

这两年在孔夫子上陆续一本本地收全了,然后慢慢看完了。

这也是这二十年来出版的书里面,难得升值的,平均下来是1.5~2倍的价格买回来。

虽然银英传对比今天的架空小说来说,世界的架构并不新鲜,科幻上的想象力也没有惊骇的地方。当然也不可能惊骇了,因为那么多年过去了,技术上的优势早就被学过去了,再磨练一下读者,就肯定不再有新鲜感。

抛去这个外壳后,应当就是独裁政体和民主政体之争。腐败的民主政体,和依赖优秀独裁者的帝国之间,在一时间,是帝国彻底胜了,但民主政体的追随者,最终尝试说服独裁者,应建立制度减少对独裁者个人能力和道德的依赖。

在帝国内部,保持民主政体的适当自治,也可以促进帝国政治的演化。

田中芳树的文笔,其实是不错的,只是日译中的过程中,很多时候,译者的水平会只保留信、达,而失去雅。

汉寿

整理了一下历史上的两个汉寿县,以及一些背景,故事的大概是这样的。

东汉置汉寿县,在现在的常德市汉寿县,这个事情应当是发生在马援征服五溪蛮之后,取这个名字的理由也很简单:汉朝长寿。

之后就到了东汉末年,关羽被献帝封作汉寿亭侯,亭侯是很低的爵位,不可世袭。因为关羽的勇武,这个封爵也是希望借助他的威势挽一下将倾之大厦吧。

赤壁之战后,荆州落在几个势力手上,关羽守在荆州,但汉寿在东吴,樊城在魏势力手上。215年前后,关羽和东吴交恶,但鲁肃还在,所以维持着表面的和平。

关羽的采邑在东吴手上,这期间不知道又发生了什么口角,反正双方都不大愉快。

217年,鲁肃去世,吕蒙接替大都督之位。吕蒙有心攻略荆州,马上就搞了个小动作,将汉寿改名吴寿。嗯。

这样关羽就失去了采邑。刘备总不能为这个小破事情去打东吴吧,要安抚二弟,于是将四川葭萌改为汉寿。

两个改名都发生在217年,因果关系是我自己的推断了。

汉寿–>吴寿这个改名,改了关羽的气运,也彻底断送了大汉朝。